Global Atrocity Risks Rise, Warns UN Adviser on Genocide

Chaloka Beyani (at podium), Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, addresses the dedication of the "Flower of Srebrenica" Memorial at UN Headquarters honouring the victims of the 1995 genocide in Srebrenica.

The world is witnessing an alarming erosion of respect for international law, with conflicts increasingly targeting civilians and heightening the risk of atrocity crimes, warns the United Nations’ newly appointed Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide.

In his first interview since assuming the post in August, Chaloka Beyani reflected on the origins of his mandate, created by the UN Security Council in the wake of the genocides in Rwanda and Srebrenica, and drew sobering parallels with crises unfolding today.

“We are seeing massive violations of international human rights law, direct attacks on civilians, and blatant noncompliance with international humanitarian law,” Mr. Beyani told UN News. “The risk of atrocities, and the actual occurrence of atrocities, is very high.”

He cited worsening violence in Sudan as one of the most urgent examples. The Darfur conflict, first investigated by a UN commission in the 1990s, continues to spiral decades later. “Nothing has changed. The fall of the civilian government has only exacerbated the crisis,” he said.

Early warning system

The Office on the Prevention of Genocide and the Responsibility to Protect functions as an early warning system within the UN. It alerts the Secretary-General, the Security Council, and the wider UN system when the risk of atrocity crimes, including genocide, is detected.

Drawing on the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide and legal opinions on genocide-related court cases, the Office monitors and analyzes 14 factors, ranging from armed conflict involving ethnic or religious groups to hate speech and the collapse of the rule of law.

When these risks show a violent pattern, Mr. Beyani issues advisories and coordinates responses with UN officials, maintaining close links with regional organizations like the African Union and the European Union, as well as other international mechanisms.

“Once our Office sounds the alarm, it signals that the threshold is about to be crossed,” he said. “Our role is not to determine genocide but to prevent it,” Mr. Beyani emphasized, noting that his Office defers to international courts to decide whether the crime has been committed.

Breaking the silence

The Special Adviser also underscored the important role of courts and justice in protecting vulnerable populations.

“The one thing you want to do in dealing with atrocities is make those participating in conflicts aware that they are being watched and monitored,” he said.

Examples include the International Criminal Court’s 2012 conviction of Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga for recruiting child soldiers, which led other warlords to publicly denounce child recruitment.

He also referenced the International Court of Justice’s provisional measures under the Genocide Convention in the Gaza case of South Africa versus Israel. Next year, the ICJ will hear The Gambia’s full case against Myanmar on the application of the same Convention.

“Prevention includes accountability,” Mr. Beyani said.

Emerging threats

Among emerging threats monitored by Mr. Beyani’s Office are misinformation and hate speech. His team collaborates with technology companies like Meta and Google to address online incitement and works with religious and community leaders to counter local hate narratives.

Environmental degradation and climate change are also catalysts for conflict. “Resource-based tensions are rising from the Sahel to small island states at risk of submersion. Climate change amplifies other risk factors,” he said. Indigenous communities, often targeted in disputes over land and resources, are particularly vulnerable.

Despite the gravity of his mandate, the Special Adviser focuses on diplomacy and prevention over public condemnation. “This Office engages quietly, advising the Secretary-General and Security Council, and makes public statements only when necessary,” he explained.

Looking ahead, he emphasized that prevention requires memory as much as action. “Commemoration of past genocides reminds us of the UN’s founding promise of ‘never again,’ but remembrance alone is not enough. We must strengthen our tools, build trust, and act early.”