Trump, EU Hold Talks to Avert Tariff Showdown

U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are meeting Sunday in Scotland in a last-ditch effort to resolve a protracted trade dispute threatening to escalate into a full-blown transatlantic tariff war.

The high-stakes talks, scheduled for 4:30 p.m. local time (1530 GMT) at Trump’s Turnberry resort, come just days before Trump’s August 1 deadline to impose sweeping new tariffs unless a deal is reached. The European Union faces the prospect of a 30% blanket tariff on its exports to the U.S. if talks fail.

President Trump placed the chances of reaching an agreement at “50-50,” noting that negotiations were stuck on around 20 unresolved issues. Still, he struck a notably warmer tone toward von der Leyen, calling her “a highly respected woman” and expressing hope of striking “the biggest deal of them all.”

The EU, represented by von der Leyen and backed by its 27 member states, has been working intensively to secure a deal that would preserve a trading relationship worth €1.6 trillion ($1.9 trillion) annually in goods and services. Diplomats in Brussels are prepared to move quickly to endorse any agreement emerging from Sunday’s talks.

According to European officials, the draft deal would include a baseline 15% tariff on EU exports to the U.S.—matching the rate negotiated by Japan—with key exemptions for sectors such as aviation, lumber, and spirits (excluding wine). In return, the EU would pledge increased purchases of American liquefied natural gas and other investments.

A separate compromise is also being explored on steel, with the U.S. allowing a limited volume of EU steel imports tariff-free, while quantities beyond that would be subject to a 50% duty.

Currently, EU goods face significant U.S. tariffs: 25% on cars, 50% on steel and aluminum, and a 10% general tariff that could rise to 30% if no deal is struck.

The EU has made it clear that avoiding further tariffs is the top priority, especially amid signs of economic stagnation across the bloc. However, member states have authorized retaliatory measures if negotiations collapse. These include tariffs on $109 billion (€93 billion) worth of American goods, such as aircraft and automobiles, beginning August 7. Brussels is also preparing a list of U.S. service sectors that could be targeted.

Some EU members, particularly France, have suggested more aggressive countermeasures, including restricting U.S. access to European markets and public contracts—a move that would sharply escalate tensions with Washington.

Since returning to office, Trump has launched a wide-ranging campaign to overhaul U.S. trade relations, promising “90 deals in 90 days.” To date, his administration has announced five agreements, including with Britain, Japan, and the Philippines.

Despite those efforts, recent polling shows public skepticism. A Gallup survey this month put Trump’s approval rating at 37%, down 10 points since January.

A successful deal with the EU would not only enhance Trump's trade credentials but could also help deflect attention from renewed scrutiny over his past ties to Jeffrey Epstein, the disgraced financier who died in prison in 2019. Pressure from Trump’s own supporters to release case documents has added to the controversy.

Whether Sunday’s meeting leads to breakthrough or breakdown remains to be seen—with only days left before a potential escalation in one of the world’s most significant trade relationships.