The Indus Waters Treaty hangs in the balance

Shailini Kumari, South Asia editorial assistant, India - Dialogue Earth, South Asia edition

Shalinee Kumari

Marking a significant escalation in transboundary water diplomacy in South Asia, on 23 April, India unilaterally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a landmark water-sharing agreement with Pakistan signed in 1960. The move came a day after a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which India linked to Pakistan, an allegation Islamabad strongly denies.

This is not the first time India has threatened to restrict water flow to Pakistan, leveraging its upstream control over key rivers. Similar calls were made after an attack on an army base in Uri in Indian-administered Kashmir in 2016. Recently, India has grown increasingly vocal in its dissatisfaction with the treaty, formally requesting a renegotiation in 2023 and again in 2024. While the treaty contains no clause for suspension or withdrawal, India’s announcement has raised alarm among Pakistan’s farming communities, as Zofeen Ebrahim reports. Farmers told Ebrahim that the move risks exacerbating Pakistan’s already water-stressed agricultural sector.

Agriculture forms the backbone of the country’s economy. Almost 94% of Pakistan’s available water is used in farming, all of which comes from the Indus basin, including its tributaries: the Kabul, Jhelum and Chenab rivers.

India, however, cannot simply turn off the taps. The current infrastructure does not allow it to fully control the flow of the glacier- and monsoon-fed western rivers. But stepping away from the treaty could allow India to pursue large-scale infrastructure projects it was previously restricted from developing. Experts suggest both countries should revisit the treaty with a ‘whole-of-basin’ approach – managing river systems as single, transboundary units, rather than as fragments, divided by national borders.

Following the announced suspension, seen by some in Pakistan as an “act of war”, India has taken further action. On 4 May, it restricted flows through the Baglihar and Salal hydroelectric dams on the River Chenab, which runs into Pakistan. A week earlier, India also released water from the same dams, a process typically carried out in August, without giving Pakistan prior notice of the increased flow. Tensions have continued to escalate following India’s military strikes on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir in the early hours of 7 May, in direct response to the attack on India-administered Kashmir. Pakistan has vowed to retaliate, with its foreign ministry condemning the bombing campaign and signalling potential countermeasures on water and trade fronts. At Dialogue Earth, we’ll continue closely monitoring the rapidly evolving dynamics of regional water diplomacy between India and Pakistan, as both nations navigate this crisis amid growing international concern. – Dialogue Earth 7 May 2025