UK, EU Sign New Deal Amid Hopes and Doubts

Britain has welcomed Monday’s strategic partnership agreement with the European Union as the beginning of a new chapter, yet questions remain about its true impact on trade and defence.
Will the Agreement Boost UK Economic Growth?

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has positioned the deal as a cornerstone of his vision for a stronger economic future. Speaking in Parliament on Tuesday, he said the agreement—along with recent pacts signed with the United States and India—marks a break from past divisions.

“These deals release us from the tired arguments of the past and, as an independent sovereign nation, allow us to seize the opportunities of the future,” Starmer declared.

While the 2021 post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement eliminated tariffs, it introduced new barriers that hampered commerce. Monday’s deal includes the easing of veterinary checks and food and drink regulations, which could boost UK exports to the EU by more than 22%, according to a study by the universities of Bristol and Aston.

Additionally, UK businesses will be exempt from the EU’s carbon border tax, potentially saving over €800 million ($1.07 billion) annually, according to figures from Starmer’s office. UK Steel hailed the deal as a “significant step in reducing trade frictions.”

The government estimates nearly €9 billion in economic gains by 2040, though that represents less than 0.3% of GDP—a modest figure relative to the broader economy.
Could the Defence Pact Shift the Landscape?

The UK and EU also signed a defence cooperation pact aimed at enhancing strategic dialogue amid rising geopolitical threats—from Russia’s aggression to growing cyber risks and uncertainty about future U.S. engagement in Europe.

However, experts have voiced skepticism. Ed Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute noted that the agreement lacks “tangible deliverables or milestones,” offering only general commitments to dialogue.

Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, agreed: “The real meat—the question of UK participation in defence industrial cooperation—is still to be worked out.” He cautioned that much remains unfinished.
Does the Deal Compromise UK Sovereignty?

The deal has drawn fierce criticism from Conservative MPs and the Eurosceptic Reform UK party, who accuse the government of ceding control to Brussels.

Kemi Badenoch, Leader of the Opposition, called the agreement a “betrayal” and a “failure.” The Sun tabloid lambasted Starmer for conceding to EU regulatory standards and continuing French access to UK fishing waters for another 12 years.

On sanitary and phytosanitary measures, the UK has agreed to align with current EU standards—and to accept future updates. Disputes will ultimately fall under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

“This deal brings clear benefits,” said NFU President Tom Bradshaw, “but full dynamic alignment comes at the significant cost of committing to future EU rules in which the UK will have little say.”

The extension of EU fishing rights until 2038—beyond the original expiry date of next year—was another major concession. However, with fisheries representing only 0.03% of UK GDP and most of the catch destined for EU markets, some argue the compromise was pragmatic.

“The standards agreement will be hugely beneficial for the industry,” noted Ian Bond.
What Comes Next?

Several issues remain unresolved following the summit, including a potential youth mobility scheme and the UK’s re-entry into the Erasmus student exchange—both priorities for Brussels.

London, meanwhile, is pushing for relaxed visa rules for touring artists and mutual recognition of professional qualifications.

Both sides have agreed to hold annual bilateral summits, with some observers predicting a Swiss-style relationship built on a patchwork of sector-specific agreements.

The evolving partnership aims to find common ground in key areas—especially where both the UK and EU see mutual benefits.