Military Conflicts Surge as US Signals Retreat from World Stage

Destruction caused by the war in Ukraine. Photo credit: UNOCHA/Dmytro Filipskyy

The world is witnessing a surge in military conflicts not seen since the aftermath of World War II. In 2024, the number of state-based armed conflicts reached a grim new high—the highest in over seventy years.

According to the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) report, Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 61 conflicts were recorded across 36 countries last year. “This is not just a spike – it’s a structural shift,” said Siri Aas Rustad, PRIO’s Research Director and lead author of the report. “The world today is far more violent and fragmented than it was a decade ago.”

Rustad warned that now is not the time for the United States or any global power to retreat from international engagement. “Isolationism in the face of rising global violence would be a profound mistake with long-term consequences for human lives,” she said.

The report is based on data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. While the number of battle-related deaths in 2024 remained steady at approximately 129,000—matching the devastating toll of 2023—it was still far above the average for the past 30 years. In fact, 2024 ranked as the fourth deadliest year since the Cold War ended in 1989.

Two major wars dominated the battlefield: Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine claimed an estimated 76,000 lives, while the war in Gaza resulted in 26,000 deaths. However, these headline conflicts tell only part of the story. What is increasingly alarming is the rise of multiple conflicts occurring simultaneously within individual countries.

More than half of all conflict-affected states are now experiencing two or more separate state-based conflicts, where the government is one of the parties involved. In nine countries, there were three or more such conflicts. This points to growing complexity in global conflict dynamics, with state fragility, transnational actors, and local grievances fueling overlapping crises that are harder to resolve.

“Conflicts are no longer isolated. They’re layered, transnational, and increasingly difficult to end,” Rustad explained. “It would be a mistake to assume the world can look away. Whether under President Trump or any future administration, abandoning global solidarity now would mean walking away from the very stability the U.S. helped build after 1945.”

The data also showed a rise in militant group activity as a key driver of ongoing violence. The Islamic State (IS) remained active in at least 12 countries, while groups like Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) expanded their influence, operating in five West African countries in 2024.

Africa remained the most conflict-affected region last year, with 28 state-based conflicts recorded—nearly double the number from a decade earlier. Asia followed with 17 conflicts, the Middle East with 10, Europe with 3, and the Americas with 2.

“Our analysis shows that the global security landscape is not improving; it is fracturing,” Rustad concluded. “Without sustained international engagement, the risks to civilians, regional stability, and the international order will only deepen.”