Can Sheikh Hasina weather this storm?

Currently, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina seems to be one of the most beleaguered heads of government in the world. She has a tragic past and a successful political life but always had to steer her political career amidst seemingly insurmountable odds since her father Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was assassinated along with her entire family of 17 members on the night of August 15, 1975.

She and younger sister Sheikh Rehana escaped the carnage on that fateful night just by sheer luck as they were travelling abroad. Hasina was banished by General Zia for six years and could not return to the country her father had fought his entire life for, which today is known as Bangladesh. Later she returned to Bangladesh as the president of the party on May 17, 1981. Bangladesh Awami League, the first political party created by her father along with his political colleagues in 1949, needed her leadership as no one else at that time could fill the void left by Bangabandhu. The party she inherited was in total shambles but due to her vision, courage, and dexterity, the party regrouped and fought the dictatorial rule of General Ershad.
Since 2009 the parties who could never reconcile with the fact that Awami League is also entitled to run an elected government made every possible effort to destabilize the situation whenever it was voted to power. They were always aided directly and indirectly by some western powers and their local agents. Just before the 2014 election BNP and its allies demanded that the election be held under the scrapped election time Caretaker Government. To press their unconstitutional demand they launched all-out anarchy throughout the country commanded by the BNP chairperson herself, reports DT.
Since the 2018 election, BNP and its allies and surprisingly some of the left oriented parties, also joined their bandwagon and continued with their demand to hold another election under an unconstitutional government which has no room in a parliamentary system of democracy. The 7 January 2024 parliamentary election was also the repetition of the previous three, boycotted by BNP and its allies but participated by other smaller parties. Since then BNP and all its allies kept on pressing with one demand: Sheikh Hasina’s government must resign and hold a fresh election under an unconstitutional government. Prior to the last election with regular intervals they resorted to extreme violence to press home their demands.
Being aware of their limitations they always sought to piggyback on some sort of students’ movement to power. First they tried to do this in August 2018 when school children began a movement to make our roads safer for pedestrians. Again they attempted another such move in the same year when general university students demanded the abolishment of the quota system which has been in place for government jobs since 1972. But things did not go their way as the Prime Minister on her own abolished all types of quota in government jobs.
In the meantime BNP and its allies kept on repeating their old demand for Sheikh Hasina to step down. In 2021 Sheikh Hasina’s abolishment of the quota system was challenged in the High Court Division of the Supreme Court by a Freedom Fighter. The court ruled that the prime minister’s decision was ultra vires of the Constitution and procedurally incorrect. The government immediately appealed to the Appellate Division and the decision of the lower court was stayed by the Appellate Division. The Appellate Division set August 7, 2024 for the final hearing.
But the demand of students to reform the quota system re-surfaced. They were assured not only by the prime minister but also by the chief justice to have patience and faith in the judiciary. But in the meantime the forces that wanted Sheikh Hasina to go infiltrated into ranks of the agitating students and misled them saying the government is not serious about their issues. Many civil society members also tried to pacify the students with logical arguments and requested them to have patience. But the infiltrators kept on misleading them which finally ended in the current situation.
By all definitions, it was another attempt by the power-hungry opposition to unseat the current elected government. What began as a simple student movement to reform the quota system has now culminated into the slogan “step down Sheikh Hasina.” One does not have to be Einstein to assess what happened here.
All through Hasina’s political career some western powers, notably the US, have directly or indirectly tried to put her into some sort of unenviable position -- she even openly disclosed this in parliament. The US does not have many friends in this region and it would be to its benefit to have a stable government in Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina is potentally their best bet. Needless to say, Sheikh Hasina is currently going through an unprecedented situation. Will she remain resilient and weather this storm? Only time can tell
 
Abdul Mannan is Former Chairman, University Grants Commission of Bangladesh.