Will history repeat itself?

Sudhirendar Sharma

Sudhirendar Sharma

The world hasn’t yet fully come to terms with the idea that, within the next decade, an impoverished former colony could become the third-largest economy in the world. It is further projected that, for the first time in 300 years, no European country will be among the three largest economies. Will an impoverished country that, in the middle of the 20th century, accounted for three percent of global gross domestic product, now be among the top three global economies?

In his insightful examination of the shifting global order, Minhaz Merchant concludes that by 2030, India will reshape the world order. This would be a remarkable achievement for a country that hasn’t been viewed as an economic power since the rise of colonialism about three centuries ago.

Before the emergence of the West, India was referred to as ‘sone ki chidiya’, a metaphor to reflect its immense wealth, culture, and influence. The idea of the ‘golden bird’ lives on as a reminder of the region’s rich past -- and perhaps also as a vision for its future. The metaphor was ‘real’ not too long ago. According to economic historian Angus Maddison, in 1750, India accounted for 24 percent of global wealth. However, British rule – they were definitely here for profit with some proselytization thrown in on the side -- ensured that the country was stripped of its natural resources and subjected to rapacious economic practices.

Era of India opens a window to this political and economic history that influenced and shaped the modern nation. In three distinct and immensely readable sections, the book traces the rise and fall of civilizations from antiquity to the present. Sourcing material from across centuries and countries, it examines how the world order is now tilting towards India. It goes a step further to assess the shifts in power triggered by the decline of the West and the rise of the rest.

All very well but will the current leaders, the US, facilitate such a shift in global power? The America First policy might have created the illusion of a revival of US hegemony but, in reality, that country’s crumbling infrastructure and ballooning debt may limit its geopolitical influence, suggests Merchant. Further, the emerging power triad represented by the US, China and India, will be complicated by a web of diverse geographical alliances. All of which means that, at this turning point in modern history, despite economic and military superiority, the three may not be without their own weaknesses and vulnerability.

Merchant’s basic contention is that India is on the economic ascent and is now way ahead of Britain, its former colonizer. As it surges forward, he believes, a majority of Fortune 500 companies will have their capability centers located in the country. Its technological infrastructure and expanding consumer market will provide a perfect ecosystem for these companies to grow. The drivers of economic growth will be spruced up to compete with the best, globally. In this narrative-defining book, all opportunities will be realized in favor of India.

Era of India is an optimistic volume that highlights all that favors the rise of India. Among these is the country’s democratic character. While the US and India have many similar democratic characteristics, China is vastly different from both. Therefore, it is critical to also understand China, which has been the biggest driver of global economic growth in the last 25 years. No country has lifted more people out of poverty faster than China, and it is the only economic power that has moved closer to the size of the US economy. In such a situation, speculations about the new global growth order will, of course, have to include China.

India’s economic rise is presented as a distinct, non-acquisitive model, one that does not enforce colonialism of any kind. The US and China are quite in contrast. While the US exerts its global military supremacy with concurrent trade restrictions, China, on the other hand, adopts a tactical cold-blooded geopolitical doctrine, which is confined to nibbling at territories. Whatever the modern manifestations, it is true that, throughout history, in the quest for economic supremacy, powerful nations have waged wars and inflicted atrocities on other people. Will India leverage its growing soft power any differently? As the cliché goes, only time will tell.

Minhaz Merchant combines history, geopolitics, economics, and demographic sociology to present the civilizational evolution of the concept of the nation-state especially in the Indian context. Era of India is an ambitious undertaking that attempts to capture the finer nuances of change. It is immensely readable but is it really possible to predict the future on the basis of the past? We shall have to wait and watch.

Era of India  

by Minhaz Merchant

PenguinVintage, New Delhi.

Extent: 501, Price: Rs. 999.

(Dr. Sudhirendar Sharma is a writer and researchder specialising in development issues. He is based in New Delhi, India.)

Published in Hindustan Times on August 15, 2026.

MAUMERE, Indonesia, August 15 (AP/UNB) — A powerful magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck off the coast of Indonesia early Saturday, killing at least 47 people, collapsing buildings and causing panic in a region prone to deadly quakes. Authorities said dozens more residents were injured and warned that the death toll would almost certainly rise.

Authorities issued a tsunami warning and urged coastal residents to move to higher ground, but later lifted the warning when Indonesia’s meteorological agency said monitoring showed no significant sea-level changes that posed a threat to coastal communities. Some smaller tsunamis were reported.

The U.S. Geological Survey said the quake hit eastern Indonesia's Flores region at a depth of 10 kilometers (6 miles) at 5:58 a.m. local time. Its epicenter was 68 km (42 miles) north-northwest of the city of Ende in East Nusa Tenggara province.

The quake triggers landslides and generates small tsunamis

The meteorological agency said the quake was followed by at least 235 aftershocks, with the largest recorded at magnitude 6.2.

The agency's sea-level monitoring stations acknowledged some small tsunamis reached coastal villages in Manggarai and East Manggarai regencies. Videos obtained by The Associated Press showed the coastal village of Ngada village in East Manggarai blanketed in mud and debris after what the agency described as a 1.61-meter (5.3 feet) tsunami. Fishing boats were stranded ashore, infrastructure damaged, and homes surrounded by sediment left by receding waters.

Waves measuring 0.94 meters (3.1 feet) were observed in Maurole, Ende Regency.

Tsunami waves exceeding 0.5 meters (1.6 feet) were detected in Bulukumba, South Sulawesi, and Sape in Bima Regency.

A strong, land-based earthquake of 6.9 magnitude hit North Sumatra province in western Indonesia on Saturday afternoon, according to the USGS. It struck 172.5 kilometers (107 miles) beneath the earth’s surface, meaning it was too deep to cause significant damage or casualties, Indonesian authorities said.

The quake has caused buildings to collapse

East Nusa Tenggara Police Chief Rudi Darmoko said power outages hampered the spread of information about the impact of the earthquake in cities and villages, complicating search and rescue efforts.

“We are continuing to collect reports of damage and casualties, but there are communication disruptions,” Darmoko said. He said quake-triggered landslides in Ende regency blocked the Trans-Flores highway, a roughly 700-kilometer (435-mile) paved mountain road spanning Flores Island, from Labuan Bajo to Larantuka.

The head of the National Disaster Management Agency, Suharyanto, said rescuers have recovered at least 47 bodies, mostly in Sikka, Manggarai and East Manggarai, and at least 50 people were taken to hospitals.

Suharyanto, who like many Indonesians uses a single name, said the quake flattened at least 157 houses and damaged nearly 200 more, forcing about 2,000 villagers to abandon their homes and move to temporary shelters. The powerful temblor also destroyed more than 100 public facilities, including schools, medical centers and churches.

The death toll could rise because landslides triggered by the earthquake buried or cut off many remote villages across six regencies on Flores Island, said Fathur Rahman, who heads the Search and Rescue Office in Maumere, the capital of Sikka.

Some remote villages are completely buried, he said, and damaged infrastructure and a lack of heavy equipment were hindering rescue efforts.

Authorities deployed three helicopters and a rescue vessel to support logistics and emergency response operations, including potential evacuations. East Nusa Tenggara consists of numerous islands and presents significant transportation and access challenges.

Residents ran for their lives when the quake struck

The quake was felt across much of Flores island with initial reports indicating heavy damage.

Yohanna Embu, who lives in Sikka, said people ran in a panic to higher ground.

“Many buildings here were damaged ... I saw that the waiting room at the port terminal in Maumere had collapsed,” she said.

Students at St. Peter Major Seminary in Sikka who were attending morning Mass fled when the roof of an assembly hall collapsed, said the Rev. Guidelbertus Tanga, rector of the seminary, known locally as Ritapiret Seminary on the predominantly Catholic island of Flores.

“Our students and nuns ran out in panic beneath a collapsing roof,” Tanga said. “At least one priest suffered a broken leg after jumping from the second floor of a building during the quake.”

The quake also struck Labuan Bajo, a gateway town to eastern Indonesia’s Komodo National Park, one of the country’s best-known attractions. Damage was reported in Bima, a city in neighboring West Nusa Tenggara province, and in parts of southern Sulawesi island.

Indonesian authorities initially issued a tsunami warning for parts of East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, South Sulawesi and Southeast Sulawesi provinces, and urged residents to stay away from beaches and riverbanks. The agency located the shallow undersea quake near Flores island.

Indonesia, a vast archipelago of more than 17,000 islands, is prone to earthquakes and volcanic activity because of its location on the “Ring of Fire,” an arc of volcanoes and fault lines in the Pacific Basin.

Most notably, a powerful earthquake caused a tsunami in 1992 that killed about 2,500 people on Flores, part of a group of islands in the eastern half of Indonesia, while in 2018, a magnitude 7.5 quake spawned a large localized tsunami that wiped out coastal areas, killing more than 4,400 people.

In December 2004, a massive magnitude 9.1 earthquake off Sumatra in western Indonesia triggered a tsunami that killed 230,000 people in a dozen countries.

Will history repeat itself?

Sudhirendar Sharma

The world hasn’t yet fully come to terms with the idea that, within the next decade, an impoverished former colony could become the third-largest economy in the world. It is further projected that, for the first time in 300 years, no European country will be among the three largest economies. Will an impoverished country that, in the middle of the 20th century, accounted for three percent of global gross domestic product, now be among the top three global economies?

In his insightful examination of the shifting global order, Minhaz Merchant concludes that by 2030, India will reshape the world order. This would be a remarkable achievement for a country that hasn’t been viewed as an economic power since the rise of colonialism about three centuries ago.

Before the emergence of the West, India was referred to as ‘sone ki chidiya’, a metaphor to reflect its immense wealth, culture, and influence. The idea of the ‘golden bird’ lives on as a reminder of the region’s rich past -- and perhaps also as a vision for its future. The metaphor was ‘real’ not too long ago. According to economic historian Angus Maddison, in 1750, India accounted for 24 percent of global wealth. However, British rule – they were definitely here for profit with some proselytization thrown in on the side -- ensured that the country was stripped of its natural resources and subjected to rapacious economic practices.

Era of India opens a window to this political and economic history that influenced and shaped the modern nation. In three distinct and immensely readable sections, the book traces the rise and fall of civilizations from antiquity to the present. Sourcing material from across centuries and countries, it examines how the world order is now tilting towards India. It goes a step further to assess the shifts in power triggered by the decline of the West and the rise of the rest.

All very well but will the current leaders, the US, facilitate such a shift in global power? The America First policy might have created the illusion of a revival of US hegemony but, in reality, that country’s crumbling infrastructure and ballooning debt may limit its geopolitical influence, suggests Merchant. Further, the emerging power triad represented by the US, China and India, will be complicated by a web of diverse geographical alliances. All of which means that, at this turning point in modern history, despite economic and military superiority, the three may not be without their own weaknesses and vulnerability.

Merchant’s basic contention is that India is on the economic ascent and is now way ahead of Britain, its former colonizer. As it surges forward, he believes, a majority of Fortune 500 companies will have their capability centers located in the country. Its technological infrastructure and expanding consumer market will provide a perfect ecosystem for these companies to grow. The drivers of economic growth will be spruced up to compete with the best, globally. In this narrative-defining book, all opportunities will be realized in favor of India.

Era of India is an optimistic volume that highlights all that favors the rise of India. Among these is the country’s democratic character. While the US and India have many similar democratic characteristics, China is vastly different from both. Therefore, it is critical to also understand China, which has been the biggest driver of global economic growth in the last 25 years. No country has lifted more people out of poverty faster than China, and it is the only economic power that has moved closer to the size of the US economy. In such a situation, speculations about the new global growth order will, of course, have to include China.

India’s economic rise is presented as a distinct, non-acquisitive model, one that does not enforce colonialism of any kind. The US and China are quite in contrast. While the US exerts its global military supremacy with concurrent trade restrictions, China, on the other hand, adopts a tactical cold-blooded geopolitical doctrine, which is confined to nibbling at territories. Whatever the modern manifestations, it is true that, throughout history, in the quest for economic supremacy, powerful nations have waged wars and inflicted atrocities on other people. Will India leverage its growing soft power any differently? As the cliché goes, only time will tell.

Minhaz Merchant combines history, geopolitics, economics, and demographic sociology to present the civilizational evolution of the concept of the nation-state especially in the Indian context. Era of India is an ambitious undertaking that attempts to capture the finer nuances of change. It is immensely readable but is it really possible to predict the future on the basis of the past? We shall have to wait and watch.

Era of India  

by Minhaz Merchant

PenguinVintage, New Delhi.

Extent: 501, Price: Rs. 999.

(Dr. Sudhirendar Sharma is a writer and researchder specialising in development issues. He is based in New Delhi, India.)

Published in Hindustan Times on August 15, 2026.