Global Coal Demand Set to Reach Record High in 2025

Global coal consumption is expected to reach a record level in 2025, driven partly by policy support in the United States, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In its annual coal market outlook released on Wednesday, the IEA said global demand is projected to rise by 0.5 percent this year to about 8.85 billion tonnes. While consumption is forecast to peak in 2025, demand is expected to ease gradually over the rest of the decade as alternative energy sources expand.

China and India typically lead growth in global coal use as they work to meet rising electricity demand. This year, however, coal consumption remained broadly stable in China and declined in India.

The IEA expects coal demand in China, the world’s largest consumer, to edge down slightly over the next five years. In India, an early and strong monsoon boosted hydropower generation, reducing reliance on coal-fired electricity for only the third time in five decades.

In contrast, coal demand in the United States rose sharply in 2025, supported by strong policy backing for the sector. The agency said US coal consumption is set to increase by about eight percent this year, reflecting higher natural gas prices and a slowdown in coal plant retirements linked to federal policy support.

This marks a reversal from the average annual decline of around six percent in US coal use over the past 15 years. In April, President Donald Trump signed measures aimed at expanding coal mining and boosting electricity generation to meet rising demand, including from energy-intensive artificial intelligence technologies.

Despite the short-term uptick, the IEA still expects US coal demand to resume its downward trend, falling by an average of six percent per year through 2030 as renewable energy capacity grows and coal plants continue to retire, albeit more slowly than previously anticipated.

Globally, coal demand in 2030 is forecast to be about three percent lower than in 2025. While rising electricity consumption will continue to support coal use, competition from other energy sources is intensifying, with rapid growth in renewables, steady expansion of nuclear power and increased supplies of liquefied natural gas.

Coal’s share of global power generation has been steadily declining, the IEA noted. It accounted for 41 percent of electricity generation in 2013 but is expected to fall to around 34 percent in 2025, the lowest level recorded in the agency’s data series.