BNP to Get 38.76% Votes, Jamaat 21.45%, NCP 15.84%

Representational photo

A nationwide survey of Bangladeshi youth has revealed that the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) would receive the most votes in the next national election, followed by Jamaat-e-Islami and the National Citizens' Party (NCP).

The survey, jointly conducted by the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM) and ActionAid Bangladesh, gathered responses from 2,000 young people aged between 15 and 35. It was carried out from 20 to 31 May 2025 across all eight divisions of the country, covering two districts per division and two upazilas per district.

According to the findings, 38.76% of respondents expressed support for BNP, followed by 21.45% for Jamaat-e-Islami, and 15.84% for the NCP. Interestingly, the banned Awami League, whose registration is currently suspended, also received 15.84% support in a hypothetical scenario where it could participate in elections. Other Islamic parties collectively garnered 4.59%.

Youth participation in elections appears promising—76.78% said they plan to vote, while 5.9% remain undecided, 4.14% said they would not vote, and 13.98% are not yet registered voters.

The survey highlights social media as the primary source of political information, with 87.4% of respondents relying on it for updates and opinions. Despite their engagement, many youths remain uncertain whether existing political parties adequately address their needs. Over 40% said they were unsure if parties truly represent youth interests, while 30% believed parties are only “somewhat” responsive.

Regarding religion-based politics, 51.77% of participants said it benefits Bangladesh’s development, whereas 48.23% disagreed. About 38.3% voiced concern over the rise of religious political groups, while others were indifferent or not concerned.

Asked whether religion-based parties could take power in the near future, 39% were uncertain, 22.5% said “never,” and 11% believed it could happen within five years.

The survey’s findings were presented at a programme in Dhaka, where youth representatives, researchers, and government officials discussed the results and implications. Many emphasised that young people have historically led movements—such as the July Uprising—but continue to be sidelined in policymaking and leadership roles.

One key point raised was whether youth entering politics are motivated by ideals and reform or merely access to privilege and power. The need for inclusive policymaking, education reform, and job creation was also underscored by speakers from the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Labour and Employment.

Commenting on the findings, SANEM Executive Director Dr Selim Raihan cautioned that the opinions reflect only the surveyed youth sample, not the entire population. “In sensitive areas like politics, it is crucial to interpret the results within the proper context,” he said.

He further warned that the opportunity presented by the political awakening of youth following the July Uprising may be lost if not translated into meaningful reform. “If the key stakeholders do not seize this moment to act on the hopes and energy of the youth, the vision of a new and inclusive Bangladesh may remain unfulfilled.”