Trade, Debt and Investment to Dominate Key UN Meeting

In landlocked countries like Bhutan (pictured), roads are a vital lifeline. But limited and costly transport infrastructure restricts mobility, inflates trade costs, and hinders access to markets, education, and healthcare.

The world’s poorest people are being squeezed by trade uncertainty, heavy debt burdens, and falling investment, the UN trade and development agency UNCTAD has warned ahead of its largest ministerial meeting in four years, set to take place in Geneva next week.

UNCTAD 16, scheduled from 20 to 24 October, will seek practical ways to restore predictability in global trade, ease debt pressures, and channel investment into the real economy.

“We are witnessing a transformational shift in multilateral trade, and the decisions we make during UNCTAD 16 will shape the future of trade and global development policy,” said Rebeca Grynspan, UNCTAD’s Secretary-General, on Monday in Geneva.

Ms Grynspan cautioned that policy shifts and uncertainty “can be more disruptive than tariffs,” as they divert investment, wipe out jobs, and erode competitiveness, particularly in developing countries. She stressed that restoring confidence and stability is “foundational” for smaller economies to plan and invest.

Despite geopolitical tensions, she reported signs of resilience in the first half of 2025, with global trade expanding by roughly $500 billion. Goods trade rose by 5 per cent in value, services by 6 per cent, and South–South trade (excluding China) by 9 per cent. She credited developing countries with driving this growth but warned that predictability must be rebuilt to sustain trade-led investment and economic momentum.

On finance, Ms Grynspan highlighted a deepening human toll, noting that “3.4 billion people in the world live in countries spending more on servicing debt than on health and education.”

She called for a fairer, more predictable, and accessible global financial system, referring to outcomes from July’s Financing for Development Conference. These include efforts to expand affordable long-term capital and establish a “borrowers’ club” to enhance countries’ negotiating and debt-management capacities.

Turning to investment flows, the UNCTAD chief noted that foreign direct investment (FDI) into developing countries continues to decline and remains concentrated in traditional sectors and regions.

“The goal is not just to attract investment, but to attract the right kind of investment,” she emphasised, pointing to priorities such as sustainable infrastructure, green energy, health, education, water and sanitation, agriculture, and digital capacities that generate long-term value.

She added that digital trade and data flows now underpin more than 60 per cent of global GDP growth, while rising market concentration in cloud computing and generative AI poses inclusion risks that require urgent policy attention.

Addressing the situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT), Ms Grynspan said UNCTAD will present its new report to its board in November. She clarified that the body’s estimates focus on the time required for the Palestinian economy to return to pre-war conditions, while reconstruction costs fall under the purview of other agencies.

UNCTAD 16 will bring together representatives from around 100 countries, including about 60 ministers and 40 vice-ministers. Approximately 1,700 participants have registered for the event, which will feature seven ministerial roundtables and dedicated forums on youth, gender, civil society, and business.

The UN Secretary-General is expected to deliver a special address during the week. Discussions will cover trade, financing for development, debt, investment, regional trade, supply chains, and the role of technology—including artificial intelligence—in building an inclusive digital economy.

Ms Grynspan underscored that trade, finance, investment, and technology are the “four pillars of development” and must be addressed together to make the global economy work for everyone, “especially for those who are the most vulnerable.”