COP30 in Amazon: Big promises, high stakes for planet’s future

COP30 in Amazon: Big promises, high stakes for planet’s future

This year’s United Nations climate summit, COP30, promises to be one of the most symbolic and consequential since the Paris Agreement — not only because it marks a decade of that historic accord but also because it takes place in Belem, at the edge of the Amazon rainforest, one of the planet’s most vulnerable yet vital ecosystems.

Nearly every nation on Earth will gather in Brazil from 10 November for two weeks of intense negotiations on how to curb global warming, finance adaptation, and protect nature. Yet unlike some previous editions, COP30 has no single overarching theme or target, making its success dependent on whether countries can bridge deep political and financial divides.

Climate-vulnerable nations, many from the Global South, are already expressing frustration over what they see as weak commitments from major polluters and insufficient financial support for countries hit hardest by rising temperatures, floods, and droughts.

Below are the key issues expected to dominate the talks in Belem:

Emissions: Falling short of promises

Global emissions remain far from the trajectory needed to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C. Despite the urgent scientific warnings, most countries have failed to deliver credible plans to slash greenhouse gases.

Under the Paris framework, nations are obliged every five years to submit stronger national targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which collectively are meant to increase global ambition. The latest round of 2035 pledges was due in February — but most countries missed the deadline.

By early October, only around 60 nations had submitted their updated commitments, and few offered convincing progress. China’s target was deemed disappointingly modest, the European Union remains divided over its internal burden-sharing, and India has yet to finalise its pledge.

Observers believe a reckoning could unfold in Belem, with pressure mounting on Brazil, the host nation, to push for a more unified and ambitious response. “These new targets reflect the vision of our shared future,” Brazilian officials have said, while acknowledging that collective action is lagging behind.

Money: The familiar flashpoint

Finance — or the lack of it — is expected to be a flashpoint once again. Developing nations argue that wealthier countries, which historically emitted the most carbon, have not honoured promises to support climate adaptation and a low-carbon transition.

At COP29, after two tense weeks of talks, countries agreed to mobilise $300 billion annually by 2035 for developing economies — a figure widely criticised as inadequate. They also pledged to help raise $1.3 trillion from public and private sources, but offered little detail on how that would happen.

At COP30, negotiators from Africa, Asia, and small island states will demand clearer commitments and timelines, especially for adaptation funding — essential for building coastal defences, managing extreme weather, and protecting livelihoods.

With the existing adaptation goal expiring this year, a new global finance target is likely to be on the table, setting the stage for another round of hard bargaining between rich and poor nations.

Forests: The Amazon takes centre stage

By hosting COP30 in Belem, Brazil intends to spotlight the Amazon rainforest — often called the lungs of the Earth — and the need to halt deforestation to meet global climate goals.

The Brazilian government is expected to launch the Tropical Forests Forever Fund (TFFF), an ambitious initiative designed to reward countries that preserve tropical forests instead of clearing them for agriculture or industry.

The TFFF aims to raise $25 billion from donor governments and $100 billion from the private sector, with investments channelled into sustainable forest management. Brazil has already contributed $1 billion to kick-start the fund.

Environmental experts view the proposal as a potential breakthrough. “If properly implemented, this could mark real progress in protecting tropical forests,” said Clement Helary of Greenpeace, while stressing the need for a firm global commitment to end deforestation by 2030.

Deforestation rates remain alarming. According to Global Forest Watch, the loss of primary tropical forest reached a record high in 2024 — equivalent to 18 football fields of trees disappearing every minute, much of it due to wildfires and illegal clearing.

A decade after Paris: Can Belem deliver?

COP30 comes at a crucial time. Global temperatures are on track for nearly 3°C of warming this century unless emissions fall sharply. Scientists warn that failure to act decisively now could make key climate tipping points irreversible.

The setting — deep within the Amazon basin — is both symbolic and sobering. The rainforest, once a vast carbon sink, is under threat of turning into a carbon source if deforestation continues. That reality underscores what is at stake in Belem: the credibility of the global climate effort itself.

While the summit may not produce sweeping new treaties, it will test the world’s willingness to deliver on promises made in Paris — and to finance a future that keeps the planet habitable for all.