Bangladesh Faces $1.25 Billion Export Loss from US Tariffs

A 3D-printed miniature model depicting U.S. President Donald Trump, U.S. flag and word "Tariffs" in this illustration taken, April 17, 2025.

Bangladesh could lose up to 14 percent of its exports to the US—nearly $1.25 billion—over the next year due to a newly imposed 20 percent reciprocal tariff, according to a study by the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID).

Apparel exports alone may fall by around $1.08 billion, RAPID Chairman Mohammad Abdur Razzaque said at a workshop for journalists on the impact of US tariffs and LDC graduation, held at CIRDAP in Dhaka.

Razzaque noted that while Bangladesh faces lower tariffs than major competitors such as India and China, the shrinking US market makes export growth challenging. “Bangladesh may gain market share in the US apparel sector, but overall exports may not rise as the total market contracts,” he explained.

Other countries are also expected to see declines: China’s exports could drop by 58 percent, India’s by 48 percent, Vietnam’s by 28 percent, and Indonesia’s by 27 percent. If India secures a trade deal reducing its tariff, Bangladesh’s export loss could increase to 17.46 percent.

The US is Bangladesh’s largest export market, with garments accounting for over 90 percent of shipments. The country exports more than $8 billion worth of goods annually to the US, leaving a $6 billion trade gap. Bangladesh is the third-largest garment exporter to the US after China and Vietnam, holding a 9.3 percent share of the $81 billion American apparel import market.

Razzaque warned that future prospects will also be affected by global competition, US domestic policies, and Bangladesh’s ability to adapt. “Strategic interventions, efficiency improvements, and export diversification will be critical,” he said.

A visiting US trade delegation urged the government to accelerate labour law reforms and reduce the trade deficit to limit retaliatory tariffs, meeting with Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) leaders in Dhaka.